I mean this is roughly the way people are thinking on this side. At the moment, for instance if you look at the last three or four days you will find at least a dozen violations a day. Most of the interviewees argued that the Pakistani army abstained from escalating to avoid killing Muslims in India and to maintain forces on their western front, the border with Afghanistan. It remains to be seen whether multiplying CFVs will result in a new kind of escalation that the usual mechanisms will be unable to contain.
The ritualization of the India-Pakistan CFVs may be facing a new kind of challenge because of intensified military maneuvers on both sides. A whole set of factors explain the steep rise in CFVs, which now tend to occur between one-fifth and one-third of the days in a calendar year. CFVs not only arise from local circumstances but also reflect the quality of bilateral relations as well as the strategies of the respective rulers. Another driver of CFVs is mujahideen infiltrations—although they are less pronounced than in the early s. These infiltrations are multifaceted and not unrelated to bilateral relations.
Even if the spoiler theory does not explain the whole story, there is no doubt that the Pakistani establishment can try to sabotage peace talks between Islamabad and New Delhi by resorting to infiltrations, which will result in terrorist attacks and intensify CFVs. But the Indian strategy may explain some of these CFVs too.
Not only has the intensification of military operations in Jammu and Kashmir including the fate of Burhan Wani indirectly contributed to infiltrations and therefore to CFVs, but the government of India has also hardened its attitude toward Pakistan for political reasons—as evident from the official justification of the largely publicized September strike in Kashmir, which was supposed to teach Pakistan a lesson and reduce CFVs.
But what exactly is their goal is not very clear. In spite of the intensification of CFVs, the UN has not come out with a definitive report, much less a resolution. While the UN cannot be part of the solution, other external players must still be taken into account. The first is that the [Jammu and Kashmir] people have been subjected to ongoing hardships and sufferings since The second.
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Third parties played a very important role in the agreement and the fact that the United States and the West at large have gradually withdrawn from the South Asian scene probably partly explains the rise of the CFVs today. A priority for NATO countries should be to re-engage both neighbors, but this is very unlikely at a time when U. As a result, other third parties may emerge, including China, which is interested in pacifying a region where it is investing billions of dollars in the Belt and Road Initiative.
If China decides to help, it will first have to exert pressure on Pakistan, the country it can influence the most directly. For its part, the Pakistani army has suggested that it is ready for talks with India, possibly due to financial pressure.
Politics as Continuation of War by Other Means?
Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa is reportedly worried about the economic crisis affecting the country. A victim of rising oil prices as well as declining exports and remittances, Pakistan has paid for its deficits by borrowing more money. General Bajwa, it seems, considers the military spending from fighting on two fronts Afghanistan and the LoC to be unsustainable. In his congratulatory message to Imran Khan, Narendra Modi responded constructively, calling for dialogue. India had agreed to a meeting on September 26, but New Delhi called it off less than twenty-four hours after confirming.
Some analysts have explained this U-turn by the fact that New Delhi belatedly realized that the government would celebrate the second anniversary of the surgical strike only three days after the meeting. Contradictory signals would be sent if peace talks were followed, that closely, by a grand commemoration of a transborder attack against Pakistan.
Below, for the Pakistanis, lies the kilometer-long working boundary, which, for Indians, is already part of international border. With help from Asma Faiz from the Lahore University of Management Sciences, dozens of politicians, senior diplomats, military officers, and journalists in Lahore, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi were interviewed, including: Ashraf J. Qazi high commissioner to India, — ; Khurshid Kasuri Pakistani minister of foreign affairs, — ; Riaz Khokhar high commissioner to India, —, and foreign secretary of Pakistan, — ; Salman Bashir high commissioner to India, —, and foreign secretary of Pakistan, — ; Shaharyar Khan foreign secretary of Pakistan, — ; Syed Azmat Hassan deputy permanent representative of the Pakistan mission to the United Nations, — ; Iqbal Ahmad Khan former Pakistani ambassador to Bangladesh and Iran , and Shahid Malik high commissioner to India, — Among former military officers: Lieutenant General Talat Masood secretary of defense production, — Because they are the same people.
They are relatives. In spite of these consideration, there was no clear evidence, until , that the Pakistani army targeted the Hindu-dominated district of Jammu more than the others. Civilian casualties. We are only aware of our casualties by the Indian forces and not the other way around.
Those who tried to find a place to stay in Muzaffarabad in , when mortars started to kill again in Neelum Valley, had to pay up to Rs. See Zakaria, Between the Great Divide , 10, 73, 94—95,. Troops stood there for eleven months, eyeball to eyeball, with nothing happening. In fact, there was a question in the Lok Sabha by a member of Parliament asking George Fernandes, the then Defence Minister, about the casualties. He mentioned eighteen hundred and seventy-one, if my memory is right, as people who had died without a shot being fired in anger. Twice or thrice the American and British Ambassadors called on me jointly.
Yet even if the correlation is unclear, this variable also needs to be factored in. Ajit Doval, who is calling the shots when it comes to relations with Pakistan. See D. Peri and M.
Human Rights as War by Other Means | Jennifer Curtis
Actually, that is the only, shall we say, crisis management instrument that we have on both sides. The telephone contact between the director of military operations here and the director of military operations there. We experimented with hotlines between the foreign secretaries, it was the most dead. It was just a public adaption.
Surgical strike means much more than that. Going in and smashing this and that, killing number of people…that I would consider a surgical strike. Follow the conversation— Sign up to receive email updates when comments are posted to this article. CFVs are not war by other means. They are war - albeit limited. Cross border terrorism, which Pakistan practices, is war by other means.
The increase in CFVs is also linked to Pakistan's increasing isolation in the world which the report fails to point out. The current government's has been instrumental in increasing Pakistan's isolation, but has not ordered any increased provocative Army belligerence along the LoC. Defenseive belligerence - yes. Which would explain the increased use of mortors. The current government has been instrumental in increasing Pakistan's isolation in the world, but has not ordered the Army to adopt a belligerent offensive posture along the LoC.
Defensive belligerence - yes. Which could explain the increased use of mortars. Understanding motivation for CFVs is the key, something the report hasn't done.
India has no motivation to increase CFVs. Indeed, CFVs exacerbate tensions and increase separatists violence within the valley. Peace along the LoC would calm tempers within the valley, something that Pakistan doesn't want. Pakistan has very evident motivations for increased CFVs - Provide cover fire to terrorists crossing the border, increase unrest in the valley, sabotage any peace process. Peace with India would threaten the special status of the Pakistan Army within the state.
Not all CFVs take place to provide cover fire, but the primary motive for a hot LoC is cross border terrorism. Pakistan's motivations are clearly evident from the timings of the major CFVs. India isn't averse to 3rd party role in resolving the Kashmir conflict. What India is averse to is a formal role for any 3rd party, as Kashmir is a problem created by 3rd party intervention.
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No links or markup permitted. Comments are moderated and may not appear immediately. Screen names appear with your comment. More than a year after Krutskikh made those comments, it is abundantly clear what he meant. The deployment of disinformation has long been part of Soviet and Russian military strategy.mopombagagold.tk
Civil War by Other Means
Soviet intelligence sought to amplify failings within the United States, such as in the area of civil rights, and pushed fake stories and conspiracy theories to discredit the West, including the claim that the CIA was responsible for inventing AIDs. The information and communication revolution of the past two decades, however, has transformed the information domain and created new access points for the Kremlin to conduct disinformation operations.
Putin was slow to recognize the disruptive power of the internet, focusing his energy after coming to power in on exerting control over Russian television and newspapers. However, the role social media played in helping organize protests in Moscow and St. As the Kremlin disrupted its domestic opposition online, it also learned tactics, techniques, and procedures that it would use to inform its disinformation operations against Europe and the United States.
In recent years, information operations have become an ever more important part of Russian military strategy.